Donald Trump won 312 electoral votes in November 2024. Fifteen months later, a Civiqs analysis of 99,409 registered voters shows him underwater in virtually every state that delivered that victory.
Trump’s national approval stands at 37% with 58% disapproving, giving him a net approval rating of -21. The data, collected between January 20, 2025 and April 20, 2026, shows deep red states holding firm, deep blue states firmly opposed, and battleground states showing negative numbers across the board.
Wyoming leads the country in Trump support at 58% approval, followed by North Dakota at 56%. West Virginia, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee and Arkansas round out his strongest performances. These are the states where his coalition appears durable and largely unmoved by the Iran war, the gas prices or the relentless polling.
The issue runs far deeper than that.
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Every major battleground state shows Trump underwater. Arizona posts 42% approval against disapproval in the mid-50s. Pennsylvania sits at 39% approval and 55% disapproval. Michigan and Nevada both record 37% approval with 58% disapproval.
Wisconsin shows 39% approve and 57% disapprove. Georgia, a state Trump won in 2024, posts 37% approval and 58% disapproval. Every one of these states was essential to his 2024 victory. None of them currently favor him.
The demographic breakdown adds detail to the geography.
Voters under 35 disapprove by more than 40 points. Women disapprove by more than 30 points. Among postgraduate voters, approval falls to just 26%. Independents disapprove by double digits, and it is that group doing the most damage to his overall numbers.
Republicans remain loyal at 88% approval but they cannot carry a midterm on their own, and the party strategists know it.
The White House response to the polling was predictable. Spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
The November 2024 election is now 17 months behind us, and a lot has changed since then. The political mood today is not the same as it was back then. A war involving Iran began in February, bringing new tension and uncertainty. By April, gas prices had passed $4, putting real pressure on everyday people. These kinds of changes affect how voters feel right now.
Since World War II, presidents with approval ratings below 50% almost always see their party lose seats in midterm elections. That 50% mark is not random. It has been a strong line for decades. Right now, Donald Trump is sitting at about 37% approval, with a net rating of -21. That is not a small drop below the line. It is a big gap, and it puts his party in a weak position based on past patterns.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
