It’s July 2026, more than two years before the next presidential election, and JD Vance already has one poll showing him ahead by seven points and another putting him behind by nine. Neither result settles much at this stage, but together they capture just how unpredictable the race already looks.
The latest numbers come from Zogby Analytics, which surveyed 1,003 likely voters between July 1 and July 4 with a 3.1-point margin of error.
In that survey, Vance leads Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 45% to 37.6% and holds a similar advantage over Gavin Newsom at 45.1% to 38.1%. That gives him roughly a seven-point cushion against both Democrats.
Marco Rubio wasn’t performing at the same level.
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Against Newsom, Rubio led 40.3% to 36.2%. His matchup with Ocasio-Cortez was even tighter, with the Republican holding only a slim 39.2% to 38.3% edge. If these numbers prove meaningful, Vance is doing a better job pulling Republican voters together than his own Secretary of State.
Even so, the poll leaves plenty of room for movement.
Depending on the matchup, somewhere between 17% and 23% of respondents selected “not sure.” That’s more than enough voters to reshape any of these races once campaigns begin in earnest and people start paying closer attention.
At this point, undecided doesn’t necessarily mean someone weighing both candidates. In many cases, it simply reflects voters who haven’t started thinking seriously about 2028 yet.
The survey itself is worth a closer look.
Zogby questioned likely voters instead of all adults or all registered voters, a standard approach that often produces results slightly more favorable to Republicans because it focuses on people expected to show up on Election Day. That’s a normal polling choice, but it also means Vance’s advantage may partly reflect turnout expectations rather than the entire electorate.
The comparison with recent polling looks quite different.
A Public Sentiment Institute survey released in June showed Ocasio-Cortez leading Vance by nearly nine points. The same poll also had Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris ahead of him in separate hypothetical matchups.
Quantus Insights reached a different conclusion altogether.
Its survey earlier this month found Harris leading Newsom by 17.6 points in a hypothetical Democratic primary while showing Vance comfortably ahead of Rubio in the Republican contest, 42.2% to 25.9%. Viewed together, those polls paint wildly different pictures.
Depending on which survey you happen to read, Vance is either the strongest Republican in the field or a candidate trailing several Democrats by comfortable margins. That’s one reason early polling tends to generate more debate than certainty.
Vance hasn’t done much to settle the question himself.
Asked by Megyn Kelly whether he intends to run, he replied, “Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision,” one of the clearest answers any potential 2028 contender has offered so far.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
